I have over the last few days been monitoring the polling numbers quite intently. Generally I have been following mostly the Ekos polls simply because during the last election their prediction was within a seat or two of the final result making their stats fairly legitimate.

So what does that mean now.

              presently           at dissolution              change

  • Conservative 131             143                 -12
  • Liberal             62               77                 -15
  • NDP                100              36                 +64
  • Green                 0                0                   nc
  • Bloc                   14              47                 -33
  • ind/oth/vacant    1                5                  -4

These numbers from most people’s perspective are incredible.  It means that the Liberals are being relegated to third party status the NDP will sit as at least the Official Opposition and the Conservatives will once again be denied their oft requested majority.

In two regions the NDP are significantly leading the polls (both the Atlantic region and Quebec) and they are surging strong in Ontario.  If these trends continue and other parts of the country get involved in this movement as well I honestly believe that the NDP could potentially get a chance to form a minority government.

A second stat that was studied that i find incredibly telling is the total first and second choice combined tally

  • Conservative   40.9 (33.9 + 7)
  • Liberals            40.3 (24 + 16.3)
  • NDP                  55.4 (27.9 + 26.5)
  • Green               20   ( 6.8 + 13.2)
  • Bloc                  10.4 (6 + 4.4)
  • other                 3.9  (1.4 + 2.5)

Using first and second choice voting options this could potentially even lead to a NDP majority government.

There is  a couple of things to suggest this election.

  1. No matter who you vote for you cant complain if you dont vote
  2. With the breakdowns currently being shown this election is perhaps the best time to vote your true intentions because it looks like the entire electoral map is going to undergo a huge facelift