So we are hearing that the NDP is basically in second place ahead of the liberals. This is interesting in a lot of ways because of the reactive way people can react to that.
A closer look at the numbers shows that the report isn’t completely accurate but at the same time is incredibly interesting.
The truth is that leader preference is up for the NDP well ahead of Ignatieff. On overall voter preference the NDP still trail the liberals but the split is down to less then 3% or a statistical tie.
Quebec is a major issue here because the NDP is in second to the Bloc only 3.5% back and again in a statistical tie. The major issue here is that Quebec holds 75 seats of which 47 are held by the bloc. If the NDP gains significantly on the bloc in this region then they could potentially take an additional 5 to 10 seats just from the bloc (and this says nothing about other seats they could steal from other parties in Quebec due to their rise in popularity.
The actual fallout of the NDP’s rise could be interesting. To get this increase those who normally vote for other parties are obviously starting to look at the NDP as a viable option. But what this does actually do as show the NDP as competitive at a time when voters are looking at the best possible ways to keep their least favourite leader of either Harper or Ignatieff out of power. What is going to happen now is that those with leanings for the NDP but who normally vote for the liberals or conservatives are going to look at them and believe that a NDP vote will accomplish their intent of stopping the other party from getting the majority. If they choose this voting method it is highly likely that the NDP will rise even further.
This could result in the NDP pushing completely past the liberals not only in leader preference but also in voting intentions. This will also free up liberals who are looking to unseat the conservatives to move in even larger numbers to the NDP. What it will also mean is that conservatives in ridings where the NDP are generally second to the liberals will look to vote NDP in an effort to push them past the liberals.
The end result of this surge is that we could walk out of this election with one of 4 possible results. A conservative majority with a NDP opposition, A Conservative minority with a NDP led opposition. A NDP minority with a conservative led opposition as well as a small possibility of a NDP majority government.
I know most people will think I am out to lunch but the reality is the NDP surge this late in the election does open this possibility and that can be blamed on two factors. Harper’s unapproachability and the complete lack of attachment of the Canadian people for Ignatieff. Pure and simple the Liberals under Ignatieff can not win and people are still uncomfortable with Harper. The only chance that harper has at a majority is solely because of Ignatieff’s lack of connection with the Canadian people.
Come May 2 I will be voting for the NDP (not that I expect this to shock anyone) and watching to see how much growth the NDP actually end up getting at the polls. And come May 3 I will return to setting up a new federal party (something I have been working on for the last few months) in hopes of being prepared for the next election.